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The nominees for the 2025 Grammy Awards were announced last Friday (November 8), sparking only the second biggest debate in the country that week.
Beyoncé — already the most decorated artist in Grammys history with 32 wins — leads all artists with 11 nominations thanks to her chart-topping, genre-spanning album Cowboy Carter, pushing her career total to a record-breaking 99 nods.
Kendrick Lamar, along with Billie Eilish, Charli XCX and Post Malone, follows with seven nods, including in the coveted Song of the Year and Record of the Year categories.
Across the four rap categories, K.Dot is competing with both himself and fellow heavyweights such as Future, Eminem, J. Cole, Kanye West and Cardi B, as well as emerging stars like GloRilla, Latto and Doechii. Even critically acclaimed-but-not-as-commercially-successful soul-spitters Rapsody and Common are up for silverware.
Of course, Hip Hop has long had a contentious relationship with the Grammys, from inaugural winners Will Smith (a.k.a. The Fresh Prince) and DJ Jazzy Jeff leading a boycott of the ceremony in 1989 to Macklemore famously apologizing to Kendrick for “robbing” him of Best Rap Album a decade ago.
While superstars like Drake, JAY-Z, The Weeknd and Frank Ocean have continued to either quietly distance themselves or straight-up dissed the Grammys, the Recording Academy has appeared to attempt to rectify these wrongs in recent years — as evidenced by Killer Mike’s surprise sweep of the Hip Hop awards last year.
In a year in which Kendrick Lamar has asserted himself as the Best Rapper Alive and women have continued to energize and elevate the genre, the Academy appears to have got it mostly right this year. But if rap fans have learned anything from the Grammys, it’s to always expect a surprise or two.
Here are HipHopDX‘s predictions for the 2025 Grammy Awards, which take place on February 2 at Los Angeles’ Crypto.com Arena.
Best Rap Album
Nominees:
• Common & Pete Rock — The Auditorium, Vol. 1
• Doechii — Alligator Bites Never Heal
• Eminem — The Death of Slim Shady (Coup De Grâce)
• Future & Metro Boomin — We Don’t Trust You
• J. Cole — Might Delete Later
Who should win?
Doechii’s Alligator Bites Never Heal
If this award was being decided purely by quality, then Doechii’s Alligator Bites Never Heal should win. Brimming with originality, personality and shape-shifting versatility, the Swamp Princess’ stunning breakthrough mixtape is reminiscent of Section.80 and Habits & Contradictions — a TDE release we’ll look back on in a few years and say, “This is where a star was born.” Doechii is also in good company with Kendrick Lamar and SZA as the label’s third recruit to be nominated for Best New Artist at the Grammys.
Who will win?
Future & Metro Boomin’s We Don’t Trust You
No rap album had a bigger impact this year than We Don’t Trust You. The long-awaited full-length collaboration between the dynamic duo of Future and Metro Boomin, the project not only kickstarted Pluto’s monster three-album run in 2024 but ignited what’s been dubbed the rap battle of the century thanks to Kendrick Lamar’s searing guest verse on “Like That.” To boot, the star-studded album debuted at number one on the Billboard 200 with one of the year’s biggest first-week sales tallies.
Outside chance
Eminem’s The Death of Slim Shady (Coup de Grâce)
With six wins in the category, no artist has won more Best Rap Album Grammys than Eminem. Even the middling Marshall Mathers LP 2 scooped the crown back in 2015. Given that The Death of Slim Shady is the self-proclaimed Rap God’s best album in a decade and one of the year’s highest-selling records, we wouldn’t completely rule out Eminem adding yet another Best Rap Album award to his trophy cabinet.
Best Rap Song
Nominees:
• Future & Metro Boomin feat. Kendrick Lamar — “Like That”
• GloRilla — “Yeah Glo!”
• Kanye West & Ty Dolla $ign feat. Rich The Kid & Playboi Carti — “Carnival”
• Kendrick Lamar — “Not Like Us”
• Rapsody feat. Hit-Boy — “Asteroids”
Who should win?
Kendrick Lamar’s “Not Like Us”
Is there any other answer? “Not Like Us” was the devastating knockout blow that finally brought Drake — a pop juggernaut who had previously won, if not survived, beefs with Kanye West, Pusha T and Meek Mill, to name just a few — to his knees. Armed with a blaring, horn-driven beat from Mustard that tipped its Dodgers hat to the hyphy heritage of the Bay Area, Kendrick Lamar beat the 6 God at his own game by crafting an earworm hit full of Instagram caption-friendly quotables (not to mention a few damaging allegations).
Who will win?
Kendrick Lamar’s “Not Like Us”
For all the reasons stated above, plus the fact that “Not Like Us” was a smash hit. The undisputed song of the summer, “Not Like Us” shot to number one of the Billboard Hot 100 before going on to break countless chart and streaming records (many belonging to Drake, to add insult to injury). It even became the best-selling song of 2024 in the U.S. with at least five million units and counting. If “Not Like Us” were to win Best Rap Song, it would become the first diss song ever to win a Grammy. Given that Recording Academy president Harvey Mason Jr. has sung its praises, it may well just go on to make more history.
Outside chance
Kanye West, Ty Dolla $ign, Rich The Kid & Playboi Carti’s “Carnival”
Kanye West and awards shows are a historically volatile combination, and given that he’s only ramped up the controversy in recent years with threats against Jews and pro-Hitler comments, one would forgive the Grammys for snubbing Ye. But the fact that “Carnival” is even in contention shows that organizers aren’t letting politics and prejudice prevent them from giving a platform to the increasingly problematic rap legend. One of the few songs from his two Vultures albums with Ty Dolla $ign that seemed to stick, “Carnival” has a small case for Best Rap Song having earned Kanye his first number one hit in over a decade while becoming a hot favorite at his stadium-status listening sessions.
Best Rap Performance
Nominees:
• Cardi B — “Enough (Miami)”
• Common & Pete Rock feat. Posdnuos — “When the Sun Shines Again”
• Doechii — “Nissan Altima”
• Eminem — “Houdini”
• Future & Metro Boomin feat. Kendrick Lamar — “Like That”
• GloRilla — “Yeah Glo!”
• Kendrick Lamar — “Not Like Us”
Who should win?
Future, Metro Boomin & Kendrick Lamar’s “Like That”
While “Not Like Us” is the most important rap song of 2024, it doesn’t match the sheer lyrical intensity of “Like That.” Seemingly irked by Drake and J. Cole’s Super Bowl-level boasts on “First Person Shooter,” Kung Fu Kenny returned in ferocious fashion to settle the long-running debate over who’s the best: “Muthafuck the big three, n-gga, it’s just big me.” Even hearing the Best Rapper Alive team up with the Best Producer Alive was a thrill in itself, especially after the largely theatrical production on his 2022 album Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers and experimental sound oflast year’s “The Hillbillies” with Baby Keem.
Who will win?
Kendrick Lamar’s “Not Like Us” or Future, Metro Boomin & Kendrick Lamar’s “Like That”
Between “Like That” and “Not Like Us,” Kendrick Lamar seems certain to take home the award for Best Rap Performance. After all, which rapper put on a better display in 2024 than King Kendrick? Drake may have joked on his diss song “Family Matters” about the Grammys showering his arch-rival with silverware for simply opening his mouth, but whether it was igniting their high-profile feud or finishing it, Kendrick proved this year that he had plenty to say.
Outside chance
Eminem’s “Houdini”
Sure, “Houdini” is a downright silly song that essentially reheats a Slim Shady classic (2002’s “Without Me”), but it has made a surprising dent. The Death of Slim Shady‘s lead single reached number two on the Billboard Hot 100 and topped the charts in over a dozen countries worldwide, perhaps helped by its flippant jabs at Megan Thee Stallion and R. Kelly and star-studded music video (which boasts cameos from Dr. Dre, 50 Cent, Snoop Dogg and many more). “Houdini” has already won twice at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards and become a staple of Em’s recent performances, so it’s not like it would need to pull off a slippery stunt like its namesake to escape with more silverware at the Grammys.
Best Melodic Rap Performance
Nominees:
• Beyoncé feat. Shaboozey & Linda Martell — “Spaghettii”
• Future & Metro Boomin feat. The Weeknd — “We Still Don’t Trust You”
• Jordan Adetunji feat. Kehlani — “Kehlani”
• Latto — “Big Mama”
• Rapsody feat. Erykah Badu — “3:AM”
Who should win?
Latto’s “Big Mama”
Cash Cobain’s “Fisherrr” and Don Toliver’s “Attitude” not being nominated for Best Melodic Rap Performance feels like two of the biggest snubs this year. Still, in a year in which beef and bars returned to the fore, Latto proved on “Big Mama” that she can do it all: a Hip Hop poster girl who is both a snarling spitter and a sexy-voiced singer. This combination of talents sets her apart from most of her female rap peers and makes her the only solo nominee on this list. Who needs a feature?
Who will win?
Beyoncé, Shaboozey & Linda Martell’s “Spaghettii”
Even Big Mama would struggle to dethrone Queen Bey. One of several Cowboy Carter cuts nominated this year, “Spaghettii” ranks among Beyoncé’s best rap songs as she invokes Thanos over an exotic Swizz Beatz instrumental that spans genres, geography and tempos. Add to that a feature from 2024’s biggest breakout star, fellow country innovator Shaboozey, and it’s hard to see anybody but Mrs. Carter winning this award (which will likely not be her only victory at the 2025 Grammys).
Outside chance
Rapsody & Erykah Badu’s “3:AM” or Future, Metro Boomin & The Weeknd’s “We Still Don’t Trust You”
With four wins and 25 nominations between them, Rapsody and Erykah Badu are somewhat favorites among the Recording Academy. The former’s Please Don’t Cry was unlucky to miss out on a Best Rap Album nod, but “3:AM” is exactly the kind of soulful, musically sophisticated song that tends to perk the ears of Grammys voters. On the flip side, Future, Metro Boomin and The Weeknd’s “We Still Don’t Trust You” boasts the level of star power that’s hard to ignore, even if it’s not the best or biggest track from Hendrix’s latest purple patch.
