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This is no minor accomplishment for the Nerazzurri, who came close to clinching the trophy in 2023, marking their nearest approach since their historic treble in 2009/2010.
What makes Simone Inzaghi’s squad so formidable this season, and how do these attributes translate into opportunities—or risks—in the betting markets of Serie A and the Champions League?
Keeping the door shut
Inter’s current success is deeply rooted in their astute defensive organisation.
It’s not just about the clean sheets; it’s the manner in which they have neutralised some of Europe’s powerhouses.
Their resilience against Manchester City and Arsenal underscores their discipline.
This solidity provided the foundation for Inter’s recent triumphs, having secured 21 league clean sheets in the 2023/2024 season and becoming the first side not to concede in five Champions League games since 2010.
With an average of 2.19 points per game in Serie A with the Nerazurri, Inzaghi ranks just behind Antonio Conte’s 2.28 and surpasses the legendary José Mourinho, who had 2.18.
In Italy’s top flight, despite a rocky start with only two wins in the first five matches, they are now projected by our in-house model to have a 49.1% chance of retaining the title—an achievement no Italian champions have managed since 2020.
The risk of complacency
Betting on Inter to win Serie A appears a smart choice, especially considering their favourable upcoming fixtures.
They face only one top-seven team, Lazio away, before the end of January 2025.
The odds have adjusted from earlier in the season, where their probability of clinching the title was 57.1%, now sitting between 50% and 52.4%, depending on the bookmaker.
A wise bet should look for odds around 2.00 or better to ensure value.
However, caution is advised. While Inter’s defence remains robust, they’ve conceded 15.25 xG, only the seventh-best record in Italy, and their attack doesn’t always hit its mark.
Captain Lautaro Martinez’s goal contributions are less than half compared to last season, with strikers such as Mehdi Taremi and Marko Arnautović netting only one goal each.
Moreover, Inter have the oldest squad in both the Champions League and Serie A, with an average age of 29.3 years, which could become a significant factor in an increasingly lengthy season.
Indeed, one of Inter’s Achilles’ heels has been their muscle injury count—already at eleven this season—which has sidelined key players like Francesco Acerbi, Benjamin Pavard, and Hakan Çalhanoğlu at crucial moments.
Realistic hopes in Europe
In the revamped Champions League, Inter’s aspirations soar higher than ever.
Qualifying for the round of 16 seems nearly assured with an 85.8% probability, according to our projections.
This would allow them to preserve energy amid a packed January and February schedule, where they will also have to contest the Italian Super Cup.
Yet, as formidable as Inter has been, the path to the final in Munich is fraught with uncertainties.
Their chances to reach the quarter-finals stand at 55.0%, with a 10.8% likelihood of making it to the last game, ranking them as the seventh favourite to take the crown.
The odds of winning the trophy range from 13 to 17, with an implied probability that surpasses our projections (3.9%).
This disparity suggests that betting on Inter to achieve their fourth Champions League title might be more speculative than strategic at this time.
Therefore, it would be prudent to await their away result against Germany champions Bayer Leverkusen before placing any bets.
