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Climate change , particularly due to drought and desertification, has driven increased internal migration in countries around the world, according to a new study by an Austrian research centre.
The research, published Tuesday in the journal Nature Climate Change , is the first global analysis of how climate factors affect movement within national borders.
The center that developed the study, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), emphasizes that, although international migration is often the focus of public debate, when environmental factors drive migration, the movements often occur within national borders.
The study, based on census data from 72 countries collected between 1960 and 2016, reveals that internal migration increases in drought-affected regions, with a very strong impact on rural and agricultural areas, where economies are more vulnerable to changing climate conditions.
“Our analysis shows that internal migration – which we define as movement between regions within a country – increases in areas affected by aridification,” explains Roman Hoffmann, who led the study.
“Many of these climate-induced migrants are moving to urban areas, contributing to the accelerated urbanisation trends observed in many countries,” he added.
Countries with the highest internal migration
The effects are most pronounced in parts of Africa, the Middle East, South America, South Asia and Southern Europe, where agricultural activities are predominant and climatic conditions are already dry.
The largest migrations are detected from very arid regions, characterized by high levels of drought, high temperatures and low rainfall.
“Future increases in aridity could exacerbate desertification and land degradation, reducing agricultural productivity and putting further pressure on vulnerable local populations,” the study said.
“Our results indicate that regions with a higher share of agricultural employment compared to the national average experience more emigration,” the article adds.
The study also detects important differences in migration patterns.
Within countries, poorer regions tend to show higher rates of emigration to richer areas when affected by climate stress.
Youth migration
In developing countries, young people aged 15-45 with medium educational levels are the most likely to migrate in response to adverse climatic conditions.
In richer countries, it is older people who are more likely to migrate.
As climate change increases the frequency and severity of droughts, the authors highlight the importance of policies that address both the drivers of migration and its consequences in host regions.
“It is crucial that cities hosting these migrants have adequate infrastructure, health services and social support systems,” adds Guy Abel, co-author of the study.
The study also highlights the need to support vulnerable populations who are unable to migrate due to lack of resources with policies that foster livelihood diversification and resilience to climate change.
