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Now just 10 days away, Election Day is fast approaching, and the weather forecast for the historic day is coming into better focus.
Forecasters say the most active weather on Tuesday, Nov. 5, is likely to be in the central U.S., where a cold front could produce showers and thunderstorms, some of which might affect swing states such as Wisconsin and Michigan.
And while weather usually isn’t a considered to be a major factor in voting patterns, decades of research have found that stormy weather “discourages voting on Election Day in the U.S., especially among young adults, people who don’t vote regularly and voters who tend to support Democrats,” according to a recent report in the Journalist’s Resource.
While the weather could play a role in this election, the forecast looks rather benign in much of the country on Nov. 5.
Storms in central US
First of all, no intense cold or heat is in the forecast for Election Day anywhere in the U.S., as mostly seasonable early November temperatures are expected. Additionally, much of the highly populated regions of the East and West Coasts should be dry and clear.
Weather looks to make news on Election Day primarily in the central U.S., as a cold front is forecast to slice through the region, bringing bouts of showers and thunderstorms, some of which could reach severe levels, AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok told USA TODAY.
Major metro areas including Houston, Chicago and Detroit could see showers and storms, according to AccuWeather. Some of the storms could be severe in the Tennessee Valley, mid-Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley.
As for the storms’ impact on Election Day, Pastelok said that depends on how intense they get and whether they produce severe weather such as tornadoes and hail. In addition, lightning would be a risk with any storm, he said, especially for people waiting in line outside to vote.
Mostly clear coasts
Most of the West and East Coasts look clear and dry for Election Day this year, he said. This includes most of the swing states, including Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada.
One exception could be the Pacific Northwest, Pastelok noted, where rain might dampen voters in Seattle and Portland.
How does rain affect voter turnout?
According to a USA TODAY interview with weathertrends360 CEO Bill Kirk, several academic journals report that for every 1 inch of rain on Election Day, there’s a 2.5 percent decrease in voter turnout, regardless of party affiliations.
Additionally, as for which party benefits, he said other research shows that rainy Election Days hurt the Democratic Party, as polls in cities — which skew liberal — often have outside lines. Meanwhile, rural voters who lean red are able to commute via car, Kirk said.
Paul Walsh of the Weather Company, in an e-mail to USA TODAY before a previous election, said, “We know from polling that weather can have a major impact on voter turnout, and that bad weather impacts Democratic voters’ ability to reach the polling sites more than Republican voters.”
Extreme Election Day weather
A few notable Election Day weather memories, courtesy of weathertrends360:
∎ Arizonans went to the polls in 100-degree weather in 1924 (Calvin Coolidge won).
∎ Alaskans braved -41 degrees to reelect Ronald Reagan in 1984.
∎ Hurricanes have also impacted elections, most recently Hurricane Sandy in 2012 during the Obama-Romney race.
