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The first harvest brings relief to Honduran households, but the impact of pests and high food prices continues to affect the most vulnerable.
The Network of Early Warning Systems Against Famine announced the end of the annual season of food shortages in Central America , thanks to the start of the first harvest .
This production cycle will allow for a replenishment of food reserves both in households and in markets, which will result in a seasonal decrease in prices.
The recent primera harvest and the start of the commercial crop season in Honduras offer a respite in food availability and income generation for the most vulnerable households.
However, the persistent threat of pests, erratic weather conditions and high food costs raise questions about whether these advances will be enough to significantly reduce food insecurity.
Uncertainty in bean production and the limited impact of additional income on the purchasing power of rural day laborers keep food stability in suspense until January 2025.
“Conditions are improving to ensure food in households, especially in the dry corridor in the eastern region, but we need to analyze what will happen in the coming months,” says producer Belarmino Mejía.
From October 2024, the situation of the poorest households is expected to improve with the start of the harvest of commercial crops such as coffee and sugar cane .
These sectors will provide greater income-generating opportunities for rural labourers, who will, however, face limited purchasing power due to high food prices.
According to the Early Warning Systems Network , households experiencing severe food insecurity ( IPC Phase 2 ) will have minimally adequate food consumption, although they will continue to rely on stress management strategies to cover essential non-food expenses.
This situation will continue until January 2025 , when the postrera harvest will provide additional relief to food security.
Climate, a key factor in production
The rains, which started again in August after the heat wave, have had an uneven impact on the region.
While rainfall is abundant in the Pacific, abnormally high temperatures are only slightly lower than the strong anomalies of the first half of the year.
This irregular pattern creates favorable conditions for the development of pests and diseases that primarily affect subsistence bean production in eastern Honduras.
Post-season harvests in December 2024 are expected to reach near-average levels, except for beans, where yields are declining.
Between October and November, the region could also experience a transition to a weak La Niña phenomenon , which would aggravate the already erratic distribution of rainfall and maintain high temperatures until January 2025 .
Impact of inflation
Economically, inflation remains a determining factor in Honduras and Nicaragua, where an increase of close to five percent is recorded compared to August 2023.
The food sector is the main driver of this increase, with a six percent rise in Honduras, caused by the rise in the price of basic products such as fruits, vegetables and foods of animal origin.
Although corn prices have generally declined, beans remain stable thanks to reserves and imports that supply the markets.
As the early and late harvests progress , prices are expected to continue to decline, although the declines will be modulated by late and staggered harvests.
