FAST DOWNLOAD
The fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria is destabilizing the order of things, particularly for the region’s military militias. Kurdish forces are irritating Turkey in an already volatile region. A new war is not impossible.
The Nagel Commission is a committee that assesses the Israeli government’s military spending. In its latest report, the committee states that Iran no longer represents a major threat to the Hebrew state. On the other hand, the danger would come from Ankara. The fall of the Syrian dictator has destabilized a country with key geopolitical stakes in the Middle East. Israel has already launched pre-emptive strikes to avoid the concentration of pro-Iranian forces, in order to counter possible operations on Israeli soil via Lebanon. But since the fall of the el-Assad regime, a new parameter has come into play: the Kurds.
Fight against the Islamic State
The head of the Syrian Kurdish forces, Mazloum Abdi, announced in early January 2025 that an agreement had been reached on “the unity and territorial integrity of Syria”. His Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have since 2011 established a kind of enclave independent of Damascus rule with autonomous authority in the northeast of the country. During the recent political upheaval, they notably fought against the troops of the former regime. The situation that has enabled them to control new territories. What’s for more, the FDS are supported by the West, led by the United States, in the fight against the Islamic State. However, this doesn’t necessarily please Ankara.
Ottoman nostalgia
In Turkey, there’s a Kurdish population seeking independence, the majority in the mountainous regions of the southeast. The PKK is an armed organization that doesn’t hesitate to organize attacks. In the eyes of the West, this makes it a terrorist organization. However, the SDF’s progress worries the Turkish government and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. They accuse them of having links with armed separatists and the PKK on Turkish soil. Ankara’s army has already carried out raids and bombings in Syria since the regime change. The tension remains palpable. The Turkish president issued a warning on January 6, 2025, opposing any distribution of power against his country’s interests. According to the Nagel Committee’s analysis, this demonstrates an imperialist desire to rebuild a zone of influence corresponding to the territory of the former Ottoman Empire. This is why Turkish forces are also operating in Libya, or in Azerbaijan against Armenia for control of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Given the situation in Syria and Turkey’s ambitions, the Nagel Commission’s recommendations to Israel’s leaders are to monitor the situation and take protective measures. Especially seeing as there’s a risk of a coalition of militias being created to defend Turkey’s interests in the region. They could be tempted to regain control of the Palestinian territories by “discreetly” sending in mercenaries recruited in Syria. This would be seen as an affront to Israel. And a cause for open conflict. The report also calls for the construction of a barrier along the border with Jordan, and above all a new annual defense budget of an additional 15 billion shekels (€3.98 billion) over 5 years, in order to be ready to face Turkey and its possible allies in the region.
International tension as a new potential war is brewing
