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It’s a different race.
In a new USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll, Democratic prospects have brightened and Republican confidence has been shaken in a presidential campaign that has unexpectedly pitted Vice President Kamala Harris against former president Donald Trump.
With President Joe Biden sidelined − to the dismay of Republicans, not Democrats − Harris in the space of six weeks has eclipsed the enthusiasm gap with the GOP and narrowed Trump’s advantage on handling the economy and immigration, the survey finds.
She now leads Trump 48%-43%, an edge within the poll’s margin of error. At least one televised debate is ahead, and about 1 in 10 voters say they might change their mind or are undecided.
That said, a victory in November that many Republicans, including some in the Trump campaign, thought was all but in hand when the GOP convention concluded in July is now clearly up for grabs. At least for the moment, momentum is behind the Democrats.
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“I very happy to see the amazing thing that President Biden did, which was to say, ‘You know what, I’ll step aside and let some young blood in, because that’s the direction the country needs to go,'” said Tracy Vega, 60, of Sacramento, a Republican-turned-Democrat who was among those surveyed. “Like a juggernaut, the Harris-Walz campaign has just taken off in the last few weeks. I think that what you’re seeing is the hope.”
The poll of 1,000 likely voters, taken by landline and cell phone August 25-28, after the Democratic National Convention in Chicago had ended, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
The boost for Democrats has extended down the ballot.
In June, registered voters said they supported their local Republican congressional candidate over the Democratic one by a narrow 47%-45%. Now likely voters support the Democratic candidate over the Republican by 48%-43%, still a small margin but a swing of seven points.
Hope for Democrats, concern for Republicans
Trump has labeled the swap of Harris for Biden “undemocratic.”
“It just threw me off,” complained Roger Sierra, 28, of Miami, an independent who supports Trump. He questioned Harris’ rise − put on the Democratic ticket in 2020 even though she failed to win a single delegate during her short-lived presidential bid, “and then for her to have this much support and just to be installed rather than voted in, it’s just a little, how would I say, confusing to me.”
There were almost no regrets among Democrats, though. An overwhelming 94% said stepping back was “the right thing” for Biden to do; 92% said nominating Harris instead was “the right thing” for Democrats to do.
“As a person over 50, I really object to the ageism that has been so rampant in all of the discussions around whether or not Biden should run,” said Liesl Semper, 58, an HR specialist from Akron, Ohio, and an independent who leans to the Democratic Party. “But as a pragmatist, I also understand that this is about winning the election.”
In a USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll of registered voters in late June, Trump supporters were twice as likely as Biden supporters to report being “very excited” about voting for their candidate, 59%-30%.
Now enthusiasm among Trump supporters has stayed about the same, at 60%, in the new poll of likely voters. But enthusiasm among Harris supporters has eclipsed that level, at 68%, more than double Biden’s standing.
Harris also has made inroads on which candidate would do a better job handling important issues.
- On the economy, voters’ top concern, Trump was favored over Harris by 6 percentage points, 51%-45%. That’s an asset, to be sure, but it is less than half the 14-point advantage he held over Biden in June.
- On immigration, an issue that energizes Republican voters, Trump was favored by 3 points, 50%-47%, down from the 13-point preference he had over Biden.
- On national security and on dealing with China, Trump was preferred over Harris by 4 points, down from 10 points over Biden.
- On health care and on race relations, Harris had double-digit advantages of 14 points and 19 points. Both were wider than the 10-point advantages that Biden held.
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“It’s vitally important that Trump not be president again,” said Jane Crosson, 67, a retired pediatric cardiologist and a Democrat from Durham, N.C. “Probably my main concerns: protect democracy, protect women’s health rights. I mean, I could go on and on.”
But Republican Melissa Bennett, 54, an office manager and Trump supporter from Pasco, Washington, said she was “terrified” about the repercussions for national security if Harris becomes commander-in-chief. “You know, we’re going to look weak,” she said.
Red flags for Election Day
More than two-thirds of Harris supporters, 68%, were “very confident” that ballots will be accurately counted and reported, and another 29% said they are “somewhat confident” they will be. A negligible 2% were “not confident.”
But among Trump supporters, only 1 in 10 (11%) were “very confident” of a fair count and another 45% “somewhat confident.” Forty-two percent said they were “not confident.”
That could set the stage for disputes, lawsuits and worse after Election Day is over. If Trump loses his second bid for a second term, more than 1 in 4 of his supporters, 27%, said they were not prepared to accept the outcome. That was the sentiment among many of the rioters who assaulted the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, to disrupt the counting of Electoral College ballots in the last presidential election.
Which candidate do voters now think will win?
In June, 73% of Biden supporters predicted he would win; now 87% of Harris voters say she will, a jump of 14 points.
In June, 88% of Trump supporters said he would win. Now 76% do − a majority, but a drop of a dozen points.
