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Two European leagues will receive an additional place apiece in the group stage of the 2023-24 tournament – and this season’s results will be key
The Champions League is set to be expanded next season, meaning more teams and more games. Indeed, there will be four additional clubs in the group stage, as the number of participants rises from 32 to 36.
One of the additional places will go to the team that finishes third in the domestic league sitting fifth in UEFA’s league coefficient rankings (France’s Ligue 1 as it stands), which are based on results over five seasons up until the end of the 2022-23 campaign, while another will be taken by a domestic champion, with the number teams qualifying via the ‘champions path’ set to increase from four to five.
However, the new ‘European Performance Spots’ will be awarded to the two leagues with the best results from the previous season’s UEFA club competitions, with two coefficient points awarded for every win, and one for a draw.
So, as the knockout rounds continue in the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League, which nations are currently on course to claim the additional places? GOAL reveals all below…
10Eredivisie (Netherlands): 10.000 pts. avg. (2/5 teams left)
PSV are still flying the flag for Netherlands in the Champions League, and their tie with Borussia Dortmund is very much alive ahead of the second leg, with the two sides having drawn 1-1 in Eindhoven. It’s been a disappointing season otherwise for the Dutch, though, who have no chance of claiming an extra UCL spot.
Feyenoord put themselves in a strong position to get out of their group but ended up finishing third and were then immediately dumped out of the Europa League by Roma. In the Conference League, AZ failed to get out of the group, while Twente didn’t even make it that far, crushed by Fenerbahce in the play-off round.
Ajax are still alive, though. They dropped down to the Conference League after a dismal Europa League group stage and saw off Bodo/Glimt in the knockout round play-offs. However, they’ll need to win away to Aston Villa after being forced to settle for a 0-0 draw in Amsterdam.
9Primeira Liga (Portugal): 10.166 (3/6)
There will be no extra UCL spot for Portugal, but this season could yet prove integral to its hopes of overtaking Netherlands in the country coefficient rankings.
Losing both Arouca and Vitoria de Guimaraes in the qualifying rounds of the Conference League was a serious setback – as was Braga being upset by Qarabag in the Europa League knockout round play-offs.
However, the Primeira Liga’s ‘Big Three’ are all still in play and a shock first-leg win over Arsenal means Porto might even make the quarter-finals of the Champions League.
The problem, though, is that both Benfica and Sporting CP were held at home in the first legs of their last-16 ties, by Rangers and Atalanta, respectively.
8Super Lig (Turkey): 11.500 (1/4)
In general, a disastrous continental campaign for Turkey, with three of their four representatives already eliminated.
Galatasaray were beaten to second spot in their Champions League group by Copenhagen before then being hammered by Sparta Prague in the second leg of their Europa League knockout round play-off. Adana, meanwhile, were knocked out in the Conference League play-off round on penalties by Genk, while a desperately disappointing Besiktas picked up just four points during the group stage.
Fenerbahce are flying, though. Having reached the last 16 with an unbeaten record, they are now bound for the quarter-finals after beating Union Saint-Gilloise 3-0 in Belgium.
Even if they go on to win the Conference League, it won’t be enough to get Turkey anywhere near a European Performance Spot, but it would do wonders for their country coefficient.
7Belgian Pro League (Belgium): 12.400 (2/5)
Belgian hopes of boosting their country coefficient rest solely on the Conference League. Genk were eliminated in the qualifying rounds of both the Champions League and the Europa League, while Antwerp finished bottom of their UCL Group.
However, while Gent fell in the knockout play-off round of the Conference League, losing 2-1 on aggregate to Maccabi Tel Aviv, Union Saint-Gilloise, who had finished third in their Europa League group, stunned Eintracht Frankfurt to join compatriots Club Brugge in the last 16.
There is a serious risk that both Belgian teams will fail to reach the quarters, though. Indeed, USG are effectively out, after losing 3-0 at home to high-flying Fenerbahce. Brugge could – and arguably should – still progress but they trail 2-1 to Molde after their first-leg meeting in Norway.
6Czech First League (Czech Republic): 13.000 (3/4)
It didn’t look like the Czechs were going to have such a sensational season when Bohemians were thrashed by Bodo/Glimt in the second qualifying round of the Conference League, and Sparta Prague failed to make the group stages of the Champions League.
However, Sparta subsequently pipped Real Betis to second place in their Europa League group and then shocked Galatasaray to set up a mouth-watering last-16 tie with Liverpool. Slavia Prague also drew a heavyweight (AC Milan) after topping a group containing Roma to progress as one of the seeded sides.
The bad news, of course, is that both Sparta and Slavia lost this week. Sparta were hammered at home by Liverpool but Slavia did well to score twice in a 4-2 defeat away to Milan given they spent nearly the entire game with 10 men. All is not lost, then, for the latter.
In the Conference League, meanwhile, Viktoria Plzen, won all six of the group games, drew 0-0 with Servette in Switzerland, meaning they have every chance of reaching the quarter-finals – which would be a fantastic achievement.
So, while the Czech First League won’t be getting an extra Champions League spot, this campaign is doing wonders for their overall country coefficient.
5La Liga (Spain): 13.437 (4/8)
Things have gone from bad to worse for La Liga. Spain was effectively out of the running for one of the European Performance Sports as it was, after three early eliminations. Sevilla finished bottom of their UCL group without winning a single game, Betis were upset by Dinamo Zagreb in the knockout play-off round of the Conference League, while Osasuna fell in the qualifiers all the way back in August.
However, La Liga will now need something close to a miracle to finish in the top two. Real Madrid may have scraped through to the quarter-finals of the Champions League but they don’t look anything like potential winners right now, while Real Sociedad are out after failing to even come close to mounting a comeback against Paris Saint-Germain.
Barcelona are still expected to see off Napoli in the last 16, but Atletico Madrid will have their work cut out overturning a 1-0 deficit against runaway Serie A leaders Inter.
Spain really could do with both teams progressing, given Villarreal have little chance of reaching the last eight of the Europa League after a 4-0 mauling in Marseille.
4Ligue 1 (France): 14.416 (3/6)
A fine week for France, who were reeling after seeing Lens, Rennes and Toulouse all get eliminated in the Europa League knockout round play-offs.
Paris Saint-Germain progressed to the last eight of the Champions League with impressive ease after sealing a 4-1 aggregate win over Real Sociedad by triumphing 2-1 in San Sebastian.
The quarter-finals also beckon for Marseille and Lens in the Europa League and Conference League, respectively. A Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang double helped Marseille destroy Villarreal 4-0 at the Stade Velodrome, while Jonathan David was also on target twice as Lens recorded a resounding 3-0 win over Sturm Graz in Austria.
All in all, things are shaping up nicely for Ligue 1, which is now almost certain to have four entrants in next season’s Champions League, with France currently fifth in the access list.
3Premier League (England): 14.625 (6/8)
Newcastle United and Manchester United both finishing bottom of their Champions League groups – meaning no Europa League consolation for either – represented a serious setback for England’s hopes of a top-two finish. However, an additional UCL spot is very much still there for the taking.
Arsenal‘s tie with Porto may be in the balance, but Manchester City, who cruised past Copenhagen this week, are the favourites to win the Champions League, Liverpool are the favourites to win the Europa League after effectively sealing their spot in the last eight with a 5-1 demolition of Sparta Prague, and Aston Villa are favourites to win the Conference League thanks to a scoreless draw away to Ajax.
However, it’s not all sunshine and roses. West Ham lost 1-0 in Freiburg, while Brighton are effectively out of the Europa League after being sensationally routed by Roma.
The Premier League’s finest still have some work to do, then, but they should still have enough quality to claim an extra UCL spot.
2Bundesliga (Germany): 15.500 (4/7)
Germany obviously has a shot at claiming an extra Champions League position, but their grip on second spot has only weakened after the latest round of action.
The Bundesliga had already been hit hard by Union Berlin failing to win a single game in the group stage of the Champions League and Eintracht Frankfurt falling to USG in the Conference knockout round play-offs. So, the last thing they needed was to lose another team, with RB Leipzig getting knocked out of the last 16 of the UCL despite dominating their tie with Real Madrid.
On the plus side, Bayern Munich avoided a shock exit to Lazio, while Borussia Dortmund are expected to join the Bavarians in the quarter-finals as they are level going into the second leg of their last-16 encounter with PSV at Signal Iduna Park.
Bayer Leverkusen and Freiburg have also put themselves in a position to reach the quarter-finals of the Europa League, with the former having come from behind to draw away to Qarabag and the latter beating West Ham at home.
Nonetheless, Germany’s remaining representatives have it all to do to finish in the top two.
1Serie A (Italy): 16.571 (6/7)
Another sensational season in Europe for Serie A, which, despite its many problems, has managed to build on the success of the 2022-23 campaign. Only one Italian club has been eliminated from European competition so far this season (Lazio) and the fact that AC Milan dropped down to the Europa League was probably a blessing in disguise.
The Rossoneri are 4-2 up on Slavia Prague after the first leg of their last-16 tie, while Atalanta earned themselves an encouraging draw away to Sporting CP. Roma were the big story, though, with Daniele De Rossi’s resurgent Giallorossi routing Brighton 4-0 at the Stadio Olimpico.
So, while Lazio bowed out of the Champions League against Bayern Munich, Serie A is sitting pretty right now. Inter will take a 1-0 lead with them to Atletico Madrid’s Metropolitano, while Napoli know that a win of any variety would see them past Barcelona.
Even more importantly, though, Fiorentina have one foot in the last eight of the Conference League, after a 4-3 win over Maccabi Haifa in Budapest, and actually look capable of replicating last season’s run to the final.
More precious ranking points appear inevitable for Italy’s in-form teams.
